Assessing the accuracy of the Wildland–Urban Interface Index in portuguese rural villages’ context: a case study of the 2017 Pedrógão Grande wildfire

Abstract

Climate change and human interventions can boost wildfires. Although naturally happening, massive events are becoming more frequent and severe. In Portugal’s mainland, many rural settlements are populated mainly by older people, and uninhabited houses are frequently poorly conserved. This combination leaves the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) dangerously exposed to the fires. Pursuing the understanding of WUI areas, this study applies the Wildland–Urban Interface Index (WUIX) assessment methodology to an area severely affected by the massive 2017 wildfire of Pedrógão Grande, Leiria, Portugal. The primary objective of this study was to compare the results from WUIX with the areas burned during the fire event. As a result, maps of WUI effect were generated, visually pointing to villages with higher severity compared to the others. A statistical analysis was performed in three villages from the region to validate the results by comparing the accuracy of the results obtained to the actual damages. The results point out a high correlation between the WUIX and the real scenario despite the apparent challenges in determining the variations in different types of fire effect. Finally, the WUIX results align with the data from the Pedrógão Grande wildfire, showing that some are promising in conjunction with other wildfire indicators.