Assessment of habitat suitability for common cockles in the Ria the Aveiro Lagoon under average and projected environmental conditions

Abstract

The common cockle Cerastoderma edule is a widespread bivalve species inhabiting estuarine systems across the North East Atlantic, where it provides several ecosystem services, and represents a valuable fishery resource for local economies. However, anthropogenic pressure and more frequent extreme weather events threaten the resilience of the species. Spatially explicit information on species distribution is critical for the implementation of management and conservation practices. This study assessed the potential distribution of C. edule in the Ria de Aveiro by estimating the habitat suitability using an ensemble approach based on ecological niche modeling and recently developed hydrodynamic and water quality models to forecast both average and projected estuarine conditions. The models were developed for the summer of 2013 and spring of 2019 and potential range shifts in the species distribution were forecasted under projected environmental conditions: high and low estimates of freshwater discharge, a 2 °C increase in water temperature, and the combined effect of low freshwater discharge and increased water temperature. The results suggest that salinity, time of submersion, and current velocity play an important role in the distribution of cockles, and large areas were consistently classified with high habitat suitability. Increased freshwater discharge (both seasons) and low discharge coupled to increased temperature (spring) resulted in large decreases in suitable habitat. Conversely, low freshwater discharges and average (unchanged) temperatures increased the suitable habitat in the outermost regions of the Ria. The spatially explicit information provided contributes to a better understanding of the vulnerability of C. edule in the Ria de Aveiro to extreme weather events (e.g., droughts, river floods) and may support adaptive management strategies of the cockle fishery during these conditions. Moreover, this approach can be transferred to other estuarine ecosystems for which data describing the environmental conditions (e.g., derived from numerical models), and information about species presence are available (including data-poor species).