Stochastic SICA epidemic model with jump Lévy processes

Abstract

We propose and study a shifted SICA epidemic model, extending the one of Silva and Torres (2017) to the stochastic setting driven by both Brownian motion processes and jump L ́evy noise. L ́evy noise perturbations are usually ignored by existing works of mathematical modelling in epidemiology, but its incorporation into the SICA epidemic model is worth to consider because of the presence of strong fluctuations in HIV/AIDS dynamics, often leading to the emergence of a number of discontinuities in the processes under investigation. Our work is organised as follows: (i) we begin by presenting our model, by clearly justifying its used form, namely the component related to the L ́evy noise; (ii) we prove existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution by constructing a suitable stopping time; (iii) under some assumptions, we show extinction of HIV/AIDS; (iv) we obtain sufficient conditions assuring persistence of HIV/AIDS; (v) we illustrate our mathematical results through numerical simulations.