Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10773/29934
Title: | Temperature time series forecasting in The Optimal Challenges in Irrigation (TO CHAIR) |
Author: | Gonçalves, A. Manuela Costa, Cláudia Costa, Marco Lopes, Sofia O. Pereira, Rui |
Keywords: | Irrigation Temperature Time series modeling Forecasting TBATS Regression with correlated errors |
Issue Date: | 2021 |
Publisher: | Springer |
Abstract: | Predicting and forecasting weather time series has always been a difficult field of research analysis with a very slow progress rate over the years. The main challenge in this project—The Optimal Challenges in Irrigation (TO CHAIR)—is to study how to manage irrigation problems as an optimal control problem: the daily irrigation problem of minimizing water consumption. For that it is necessary to estimate and forecast weather variables in real time in each monitoring area of irrigation. These time series present strong trends and high-frequency seasonality. How to best model and forecast these patterns has been a long-standing issue in time series analysis. This study presents a comparison of the forecasting performance of TBATS (Trigonometric Seasonal, Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components) and regression with correlated errors models. These methods are chosen due to their ability to model trend and seasonal fluctuations present in weather data, particularly in dealing with time series with complex seasonal patterns (multiple seasonal patterns). The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of weather time series: minimum air temperature. |
Peer review: | yes |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10773/29934 |
DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-030-57422-2_27 |
ISBN: | 978-3-030-57421-5 |
Publisher Version: | https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-57422-2_27 |
Appears in Collections: | CIDMA - Capítulo de livro ESTGA - Capítulo de livro PSG - Capítulo de livro |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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capítulo 2021 Temperature Time Series Forecasting in the Optimal Challenges in Irrigation (TO CHAIR).pdf | 448.13 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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