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|Title:||Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity: challenges and opportunities|
Magurran, Anne E.
Buckland, Stephen T.
Chazdon, Robin L.
Colwell, Robert K.
Gaston, Kevin J.
Gotelli, Nicholas J.
Kosnik, Matthew A.
McCune, Jenny L.
Mumby, Peter J.
|Publisher:||Royal Society, The|
|Abstract:||Growing concern about biodiversity loss underscores the need to quantify and understand temporal change. Here, we review the opportunities presented by biodiversity time series, and address three related issues: (i) recognizing the characteristics of temporal data; (ii) selecting appropriate statistical procedures for analysing temporal data; and (iii) inferring and forecasting biodiversity change. With regard to the first issue, we draw attention to defining characteristics of biodiversity time series--lack of physical boundaries, uni-dimensionality, autocorrelation and directionality--that inform the choice of analytic methods. Second, we explore methods of quantifying change in biodiversity at different timescales, noting that autocorrelation can be viewed as a feature that sheds light on the underlying structure of temporal change. Finally, we address the transition from inferring to forecasting biodiversity change, highlighting potential pitfalls associated with phase-shifts and novel conditions.|
|Appears in Collections:||CESAM - Artigos|
DBio - Artigos
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|Dornelas et al. - 2013 - Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity chall.pdf||467.61 kB||Adobe PDF|
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