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http://hdl.handle.net/10773/18059
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DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Stefanova, Anastassi | pt |
dc.contributor.author | Krysanova, Valentina | pt |
dc.contributor.author | Hesse, Cornelia | pt |
dc.contributor.author | Lillebo, Ana Isabel | pt |
dc.date.accessioned | 2017-07-12T14:22:07Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2015 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0262-6667 | pt |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10773/18059 | - |
dc.description.abstract | A climate change impact study was performed for the watershed of the Ria de Aveiro Lagoon in Portugal. The total freshwater inflow to the lagoon was analysed considering long-term average annual and seasonal changes in discharge, as well as extremes in terms of high/low-flow percentiles. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was calibrated at three gauges and driven by a set of 15 climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES project for one reference and three future 30-year periods. The results indicate a moderate decrease of total inflow by 5–7% in the first two scenario periods, and up to 15% in the third period. High flows do not change significantly, whereas low flows show the strongest decreasing trend among the analysed variables (10–30%). Though the trends in average discharge and low flow are very clear, the uncertainty of projections driven by 15 scenarios is high, and it is increasing with time. | pt |
dc.description.abstract | Une étude d’impact des changements climatiques a été réalisée pour le bassin de la Ria de Aveiro lagune au Portugal. L’apport total d’eau douce dans la lagune a été analysé, en prenant en compte les modifications à long terme des débits moyens annuels et saisonniers ainsi que les extrêmes en termes de percentiles des crues et des étiages. Le modèle éco-hydrologique SWIM a été calé à partir de trois stations de jaugeage et exécuté pour un ensemble de 15 scénarios climatiques du projet ENSEMBLES pour une période de référence et pour trois périodes futures de 30 ans. Les résultats indiquent une baisse modérée des apports de 5–7% dans les deux premières périodes, allant jusqu’à 15% pour la troisième période. Les débits de crue ne changent pas de manière significative, tandis que les étiages montrent la plus forte tendance à la baisse des variables analysées (10–30%). Bien que les tendances en matière de débits moyens et d’étiages soient très claires, l’incertitude des projections basées sur 15 scénarios est importante et augmente avec le temps. | pt |
dc.language.iso | eng | pt |
dc.publisher | Taylor & Francis | pt |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/283157/EU | - |
dc.rights | restrictedAccess | por |
dc.subject | hydrological modelling | pt |
dc.subject | input data reliability | pt |
dc.subject | SWIM | pt |
dc.subject | climate change impacts | pt |
dc.subject | multi-model climate scenarios | pt |
dc.subject | ENSEMBLES | pt |
dc.subject | Ria de Aveiro catchment | pt |
dc.subject | Vouga River | pt |
dc.subject | Portugal | pt |
dc.title | Climate change impact assessment on water inflow to a coastal lagoon: the Ria de Aveiro watershed, Portugal | pt |
dc.type | article | - |
dc.peerreviewed | yes | pt |
ua.distribution | international | pt |
ua.event.title | HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES | - |
degois.publication.firstPage | 929 | pt |
degois.publication.issue | 5 | pt |
degois.publication.issue | 5, SI | - |
degois.publication.lastPage | 948 | pt |
degois.publication.title | Hydrological sciences journal | pt |
degois.publication.volume | 60 | pt |
dc.date.embargo | 10000-01-01 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1080/02626667.2014.983518 | pt |
Appears in Collections: | CESAM - Artigos DBio - Artigos |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Climate change impact assessment on water inflow to a coastal lagoon the Ria de Aveiro watershed Portugal.pdf | 894.95 kB | Adobe PDF |
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