Personal protective strategies for dengue disease: simulations in two coexisting virus serotypes scenarios

Abstract

Dengue fever is a common mosquito-borne viral infectious disease in the world and is widely spread, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. At this moment, one of the best ways to fight the disease is to prevent mosquito bites. In this study, we present a mathematical model that carefully considers personal protection for humans. It is an epidemiological model that translates the dengue disease through a system of differential ordinary equations which takes in consideration the dynamics of the disease between human and mosquito populations. This model incorporates a parameter that simulates personal protection measures, namely insect repellent, special clothes, or bed nets, and a parameter that asserts the effectiveness of public awareness to the importance of using personal protective equipment. In 2012 there was a dengue disease outbreak in Madeira Island, in Portugal, and this study not only tries to predict what could happen if a second outbreak occurs, where it is considered that there are two serotypes of Dengue disease, but also tries to predict the effects and the importance of taking personal protection measures. The results show that the level of personal measures and the time that people are compelled to use them have a significant impact to prevent dengue disease.