Global temperature and carbon dioxide nexus: evidence from a maximum entropy approach

Abstract

The connection between Earth’s global temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is one of the highest challenges in climate change science since there is some controversy about the real impact of CO2 emissions on the increase of global temperature. This work contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the relationship between CO2 emissions and the Earth’s global temperature for 61 years, providing a recent review of the emerging literature as well. Through a statistical approach based on maximum entropy, this study supports the results of other techniques that identify a positive impact of CO2 in the increase of the Earth’s global temperature. Given the well-known difficulties in the measurement of global temperature and CO2 emissions with high precision, this statistical approach is particularly appealing around climate change science, as it allows the replication of the original time series with the subsequent construction of confidence intervals for the model parameters. To prevent future risks, besides the present urgent decrease of greenhouse gas emissions, it is necessary to stop using the planet and nature as if resources were infinite.