Potential persistence of high‐mountain lizards

Abstract

Climate change will impact environments globally. These changes, however, can affect species or regions differently. The upward limitation of highmountain species suggests these are especially prone to the effects of climate change. We assess the impact of future climate scenarios on high-mountain species' suitable climatic niches. We gathered 1351 occurrence records of highmountain (>2000 m asl) squamates and assessed species distribution models for those species occupying more than 10 unique grid-cells. Afterwards, for each species we ensemble climatic-niche suitability models for historic (1981–2010) and future climate scenarios (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). We identified 252 high-elevation squamate species that occur in Africa, Asia, North America and South America. When we examined species distribution models for the 17 lizard species occupying more than 10 unique grid-cells, we found a consistent negative effect of future climate change on suitable climatic-niche models: we inferred species' climatic-niche losses for 16 species and species' climaticniche gains for 1 species. Regardless of future scenarios, two species of lizards will likely lose at least 80% of their suitable climatic niche, and seven species will likely see their suitable climatic niche completely disappear. Climate change will likely have a negative impact on species' suitable climatic-niche availability. High altitude and associated environmental factors may accelerate local extinctions of mountain reptiles. We highlight the importance of identifying high-risk species for better conservation efforts.