Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10773/30582
Title: | Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 spreading by delayed stochastic differential equations |
Author: | Mahrouf, Marouane Boukhouima, Adnane Zine, Houssine Lotfi, El Mehdi Torres, Delfim F. M. Yousfi, Noura |
Keywords: | COVID-19 Coronaviruses Mathematical modeling Delayed stochastic differential equations (DSDEs) |
Issue Date: | Mar-2021 |
Publisher: | MDPI |
Abstract: | The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia has posed a great threat to the world recent months by causing many deaths and enormous economic damage worldwide. The first case of COVID-19 in Morocco was reported on 2 March 2020, and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. In this work, we extend the well-known SIR compartmental model to deterministic and stochastic time-delayed models in order to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco and to assess the potential role of multiple preventive measures and strategies imposed by Moroccan authorities. The main features of the work include the well-posedness of the models and conditions under which the COVID-19 may become extinct or persist in the population. Parameter values have been estimated from real data and numerical simulations are presented for forecasting the COVID-19 spreading as well as verification of theoretical results. |
Peer review: | yes |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10773/30582 |
DOI: | 10.3390/axioms10010018 |
ISSN: | 2075-1680 |
Appears in Collections: | CIDMA - Artigos DMat - Artigos SCG - Artigos |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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[475]COVID-19-Morocco-Axioms.pdf | 460.8 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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