Comparing techniques for modelling uncertainty in a maritime inventory routing problem

Abstract

Uncertainty is inherent in many planning situations. One example is in maritime transportation, where weather conditions and port occupancy are typically characterized by high levels of uncertainty. This paper considers a maritime inventory routing problem where travel times are uncertain. Taking into account possible delays in the travel times is of main importance to avoid inventory surplus or shortages at the storages located at ports. Several techniques to deal with uncertainty, namely deterministic models with inventory buffers; robust optimization; stochastic programming and models incorporating conditional value-at-risk measures, are considered. The different techniques are tested for their ability to deal with uncertain travel times for a single product maritime inventory routing problem with constant production and consumption rates, a fleet of heterogeneous vessels and multiple ports. At the ports, the product is either produced or consumed and stored in storages with limited capacity. We assume two-stages of decisions, where the routing, the visit order of the ports and the quantities to load/unload are first-stage decisions (fixed before the uncertainty is revealed), while the visit time and the inventory levels at ports are second-stage decisions (adjusted to the observed travel times). Several solution approaches resulting from the proposed techniques are considered. A computational comparison of the resulting solution approaches is performed to compare the routing costs, the amount of inventory bounds deviation, the total quantities loaded and unloaded, and the running times. This computational experiment is reported for a set of maritime instances having up to six ports and five ships.