Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10773/14637
Title: Dynamic linear modeling of homogenized monthly temperature in Lisbon
Author: Costa, Marco
Monteiro, Magda
Keywords: Time series analysis
Kalman filter
State space model
Temperature data
Lisbon
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: Nova Science Publishers
Abstract: This chapter focuses on the statistical modeling of the homogenized monthly ave- rage temperature data of Lisbon from 1856 to 2008. An exploratory analysis was performed using linear regression models which indicates the need of considering the temporal dependency and some flexibility in the trend modeling. In order to incorpo- rate the properties of the data it was adopted a dynamic linear models with a fixed effect component. The model was fitted by a two-step procedure which combines the least squares method and the maximum likelihood estimation in the state space framework. The results indicated an average increase of the homogenized monthly temperature in Lisbon in about 0.427oC per century, between 1856 to 2008. Additionally, smoother predictions of the stochastic slopes indicated that the rise of temperature moderately changes according to the month, higher linear increases occurred in the winter months and lower increases occurred in the summer months.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10773/14637
ISBN: 978-1-63482-969-4
Publisher Version: https://www.novapublishers.com/catalog/product_info.php?cPath=23_29&products_id=55100
Appears in Collections:ESTGA - Capítulo de livro

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